Are the Conservatives really breaking through with
ethnic minority voters?
Where did the million new Conservative BME voters go?
The
following is a guest commentary by Robert Ford (University of Manchester),
Laurence Janta-Lipinski (YouGov) and Maria Sobolewska (University of
Manchester).
Last month, the widely
respected British Future think tank published new research looking at the
ethnic minority vote choices in the last election. The research, conducted by
internet polling company Survation, suggested that the longstanding link
between ethnic minorities and the Labour party was fraying, and that the
Conservatives might at last be breaking through with minority voters, having
achieved a 33% share of the 2015 ethnic minority vote overall or “one million”
new voters for the party, and with a lead over Labour among Hindu voters. The
authors concluded that the gap between the two main parties in support from
ethnic minorities is "shrinking dramatically". The report triggered
plenty of media and political debate, and fits with earlier research suggesting
a gradual erosion in ethnic minorities' traditional partisan loyalties to
Labour. However, for keen observers of the results of this year’s election,
this story came as a big shock as the seat by seat results suggested the
opposite: a swing to Labour and away from the Conservatives in the most
ethnically diverse seats.
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